Posted by admin | Posted in Uncategorized | Posted on 06-06-2007
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Managing Money When Betting on Sports
Proper money management is an easy concept but it's very difficult to adhere to. There are many systems for varying the size of a bet, none of which work. For example, the Kelly Criterion, star betting, double-up systems all give false expectations by adversely affecting the cash flow and raise the breakeven percentage that must be accomplished.
Whenever you vary the size of your bet, you increase the breakeven percentage of 52.38. If you refigure your percentage after each bet, your breakeven increases to over 55%. If you have 1 star and 5 star bets or bet twice as much on some plays, only the large bets are meaningful to whether you will be a winner. In the end, the smaller bets won't matter. Some experts say you should increase your bet when you are on a winning streak and decrease it when you are on a losing streak. This is not always the best advice.
The problem with bet size is not the streaks, but the breakeven. If you have a 56% advantage on each bet, over 200 games you will win less than 50% about 17% of the time. You will win more than 60% about 17% of the time. Winning 100 and losing 100 with a 5% unit, you will lose 50% of your bankroll to the vig. This will lower your bet and you'll never get even. It is better to bet no more than 2% of your bankroll. Anything over 2% is very risky, even for recreational bettors.
If your goal is to be entertained but not go broke, that is entirely different than trying to make a living. If you bet $100 per game to enjoy it, it will cost you $5 per week if you can go 50-50. However, this is merely entertainment expense, not an good investment model. To bet on sports in a serious manner, you must treat it as you would any other business. In sports betting, your inventory is your cash. If you run out of cash, you are out of business. In other words, you shouldn't use your rent money to bet with. However, if you're betting for a living you shouldn't use your gambling bankroll to pay the rent.
The exciting thing about sports betting is the return on investment potential. The ROI is a function of the winning percentage and the amount that is invested. The amount invested is a function of how many games (or investments) are bet and how much is bet on each game. Just like in business you have to consider how many products you sold and how much did you make per product.
If you average 1000 plays per year, your pain tolerance is a 1% unit. If you bet 1.1% of your bankroll on every bet, that means you will bet 1% of your money 1000 times and 1000% of your bankroll, which is the same money 10 times in a year. Now if you can win 56% of your plays, you will get a return on investment of almost 100%. You will win 560 bets and lose 440. You will pay a broker fee to the sportsbook of 44 bets. Therefore, you will win 76 units. (76 times 1% equals 76%). You will win $7.60 for every $100 that you bet.
Many people try to make a living betting on sports. Some of them think they can bet $100 a game and do it. If they play 20 games a week, they will bet $2,000 and, if they are good, make $7.60 times 20 = $152. At $200 a game, they can expect $308. That's pretty hard to live on. More realistically, the minimum that should be bet is $500. That's only $760 a week and leaves no room for a bad streak. To bet $500 at 1%, you need $50,000. Like any business, you should continue to invest some of the profits to grow the business.
As soon as you can draw from the business, you should put yourself on a salary. That way you can know what to expect for an income and won't be bothered by the short term vagaries of Lady Luck. You just need to know the number of bets, the amount per bet and the win percentage, and you will know what to pay in taxes.
With a 56% expectation, your bankroll would reach a new high only 5% of the time. Nineteen out of 20 days you will be below your bankroll high. The novice thinks you should have more money each day. It's also important to know that with a 56% win rate and 100 bets a month, you will lose money every 9th month. Good money management is aided by knowing what to expect.
About the Author
Mark Robert always write about sports book. This article is a guide to online betting
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Because Aboriginals are black does that mean they can rap and play sport well?
I know all black people are good at sport and rapping so it would make sense that they would be good?
You've never heard of Yothu Yindi or Kathy Freeman ??
